The percentage of people aged 50 and above is forecast to reach 28.4 per cent globally by 2033. In 47 of 165 countries we analysed for the Savills Prime of Life Residential Index, the figure will be at least 40 per cent.
The global trend is towards lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy. There’s a correlation between better health, fewer children and rising incomes. Populations that are getting older also tend to be getting wealthier.
In other words, many countries are seeing significant growth in the number of affluent, mature people, many of whom are seeking more from their homes.
What do affluent, mature homebuyers want?
This is not a homogenous group. The 50-plus category includes everyone from busy working parents to carefree retirees.
When it comes to property, their top priorities are quality and space – for example enough space to comfortably work from home.
They may also be looking for ease of ownership. The US-branded residence trend, now gaining popularity in Europe and Asia, provides a hassle-free turnkey experience that appeals to many in this age group – especially those who own multiple properties around the world.
Those seeking the city lifestyle but larger living spaces increasingly opt for smaller cities, which offer the advantages of urban centres but often at lower costs.
The country picture
Using Oxford Economics data, Savills quantified the trends by country over time.
First, we focused on countries whose 50-plus populations are forecast to grow by more than 10 per cent in the next 10 years. They also had to be home to at least 10,000 households with incomes of $250,000 or more.
Countries with the largest and fastest-growing shares of wealthy over-50s, 2033
Source: Savills Research using Oxford Economics
Note: Countries with a population greater than half a million people, more than 10,000 households with an income of $250,000 per annum or higher, and forecast to see more than 10% growth in their over 50s populations between 2023 and 2033.
Our top 16 is striking in its geographic diversity. European nations already have high proportions of people over 50, but a large number of Asian and Middle Eastern countries will see their mature populations explode, as more people become richer. The fastest growth in this age group over the next decade will be in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
At a city level, whilst some attract more newcomers, many will rely on domestic trends to drive growth. The result for real estate is the same. Prime residential hotspots around the world should prepare for influxes of affluent over-50s, with different sets of expectations around what a home should be.
The Savills Prime of Life Index
With these trends in mind, where will the prime residential hotspots of the future be? And how will these cities meet the needs of this growing cohort?
Savills Prime of Life Index: top 10
50+ share of total population in 2033
Source: Savills Research using Oxford Economics
Note: Countries with a population greater than half a million people, more than 10,000 households with an income of $250,000 per annum or higher, and forecast to see more than 10% growth in their over 50s populations between 2023 and 2033.
THE SAVILLS PRIME OF LIFE INDEX: TOP SIX
1. North Port, Florida, USA
North Port, Florida, heads our city index. It’s part of a region on the west coast of Florida that is popular with retirees from the northern US. The city’s share of households with an income above $250,000 per annum is expected to rise from 9 per cent in 2023 to 11 per cent in 2033.
2. Shanghai, China
By 2033, four times as many Shanghai households will be earning $250,000 or more than in 2023. James Macdonald, Head of Research for Savills China, reports that the city authorities are among the richest in the country and have the ability to invest more in city beautification, healthcare services and education.
3. Singapore
Singapore is already a thriving prime residential market, recording capital value growth of 6.8 per cent last year.
A maturing and affluent population presents challenges alongside opportunities. A growing number of fifty-somethings in the city are single. Future development will have to include a large number of apartments and smaller homes that meet their needs, forcing residential developers to be creative with space.
4. Madrid, Spain
Madrid’s attractions are no secret. This may explain why residential demand already outstrips supply in central areas. According to Pelayo Barroso, Research Director for Savills Spain, many buyers are looking for renovated apartments in classical buildings, but there are more opportunities outside of the centre.
5. Kuwait City, Kuwait
Kuwait is a microcosm of the modern Middle East, with a rapidly expanding middle class – and a rapidly ageing population. This means many of the affluent and mature homebuyers of the future will still be of working age. The city has become a thriving location for second homes.
6. Zurich, Switzerland
Zurich already boasts one of the highest per-capita GDPs in the world and its wealth will only increase over the next decade. That’s especially true if the Swiss retirement age is raised to counter perceived labour shortages.
