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Elements: Why earth has a vital role in our future

We have a finite amount of soil and multiple demands placed on it. In our final piece on the four elements, we ask whether more sustainable farming techniques could increase food security and help mitigate the effects of climate change

Eri Mitsostergiou
Director, Savills World Research

Nicky Wightman
Director of Emerging Trends, Savills, UK

Joe Lloyd
Associate, Rural Research, Savills UK

“We know more about the movement of celestial bodies than we do about the soil underfoot,” the great artist, scientist and theorist Leonardo da Vinci once observed. Five hundred years later, we are still at the foothills of our understanding about what forms the foundations of our natural world. And we are prone to overlooking and undervaluing the natural capital that is pivotal to our lives, the environment and 95% of the world’s food supply.

Healthy soil is fundamental to the efficient use of the world’s agricultural land – a part of the real estate mix that is worth $41.3tn. It is, to quote the United States Department of Agriculture, an “elegant symbiotic ecosystem” – not just feeding the world, but sequestering more carbon than is stored in the world’s vegetation and atmosphere combined.

Yet this living, life-giving ecosystem is one on which we place considerable and competing demands. Should land be set aside for building homes or for generating renewable energy – or for growing food, fibre and fuel? And where does the preservation and promotion of biodiversity and the quintessential British landscape fit into the equation?

Even the soil we set aside for farming is under attack on many fronts. Extreme weather events caused by climate change can lead to the erosion and compaction of topsoil. Intensive farming practices, which rely on carbon-intensive fertilisers and potentially damaging pesticides, affect the soil’s biology and natural nutrient cycle. The counter-argument – that intensive farming limits the amount of land required, preserving biodiversity in other areas – also needs to be considered, however.

In 2014, the UN predicted that the world’s topsoil was degrading at such a rate that we may only have 60 years of farming left before all our topsoil is gone. And yet agricultural production must increase by between 70% and 110% by 2050 in order to meet the world’s food needs.

Regenerative agriculture

Sustainable soil management is, therefore, clearly a human imperative. This is why the practice of regenerative agriculture is gaining traction. Core principles such as minimal disturbance of the soil, reintroducing grazing animals and crop rotation are some of the means by which exponents aim to put more back into the soil than is taken out.

Unlike organic farming, which is bound by defined standards, certification and easily identifiable labels on packaging, regenerative agriculture is guided by a set of principles. At this early stage of its development, it lacks clarity and, hence, presence. A 2021 survey by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board found that only 14% of British consumers had heard of it.

Big brands take the lead

Awareness is growing, however. Global companies in the fast-moving consumer goods sector, including Unilever and PepsiCo, recently agreed a unified definition and aligned approach to transitioning away from traditional farming practices in favour of regenerative agricultural practices.

McCain and Carlsberg Marston’s are also showing confidence in the financial viability of regenerative agriculture. The frozen food manufacturer has pledged to source all its potatoes from regenerative farms by 2030, while the brewer has pledged to sustainably source 30% of its hops and barley by the same date.

UK-based supermarkets such as Waitrose and Marks & Spencer are introducing products labelled as regenerative, while Nestlé and Kraft Heinz are among companies seeking to raise consumer awareness of regenerative agriculture – and tackle accusations of greenwashing due to the lack of a legal definition – through educating local communities.

For farmers, the fear is not of change or of adopting and adapting to more sustainable methods, but financial viability. You can’t be green if you are in the red, as people in the industry often point out. They need to know there is a commitment from industry and government that will ensure future demand for regeneratively farmed produce, so they can be confident of putting food on their own tables as well as everyone else’s.

Those new to regenerative agriculture may need to manage their expectations and prepare for short-term pain in return for long-term gain. Crop yields tend to fall in the first year or two after transitioning to regenerative methods, according to the Rodale Institute. But as soil health improves – through minimal or no-till farming, crop rotation, using natural fertilisers and having cover crops to minimise bare soil – yields recover and profitability can increase by as much as 78%. The farmland will also be more resilient to severe weather, such as droughts and floods, and less exposed to rising input prices such as fertiliser.

Help from technology

The methods of regenerative agriculture are, in many ways, as old as the hills, using traditional grazing techniques and restoring natural ecosystems. But regenerative agriculture has a key ally in technological innovation. The AgTech (agricultural technology) sector is constantly developing new solutions to address global issues of food availability and affordability, including improving soil health analytics and producing green and low-carbon nitrates and organic fertilisers.

In Singapore, where 90% of food currently comes from overseas, they’re putting their faith in AgTech. The city-state’s 30 by 30 initiative is targeting 30% domestic food production by 2030. Some of this will come from already established urban farms on car park rooftops.

And in Europe, climate-smart farming, including regenerative practices, could lower greenhouse gas emissions by 6% and improve soil health for an area equivalent to 14% of the EU’s agricultural land, according to World Economic Forum forecasts. Studies suggest regenerative agriculture in Africa could increase crop yields by up to 40%.

Earth’s future

With regenerative agriculture rejuvenating soil health – supported by a variety of technologies to reduce our reliance on soil – the threat of a growing population existing on a finite supply of land need not be daunting. As is frequently the case, the solutions exist. The challenge lies in ensuring policies support their global adoption, bringing consensus across all stakeholders.

The stars still fascinate, as in Da Vinci’s time, and some believe space travel holds the key to all humanity’s problems. But, for the foreseeable future, more grounded solutions surely hold the key to our wellbeing.

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